1.2.2 – Established UK parties
Over the past week, key figures from both wings of the Conservatives have been in the news raising the question of the future direction of travel for the party. On Monday 26 January, Suella Braverman was announced as the latest Conservative MP to resign from the party and join Reform UK. Braverman, who was on the right of the Conservatives, backed Brexit in 2016, supports the UK’s withdrawal from the ECHR, and has described immigration as a threat to the country’s national character. Her defection to Reform was seen as increasingly likely by political commentators, particularly following Robert Jenrick’s move a week earlier.
In response to these defections, some commentators had suggested that this would help to make the Conservatives more ideologically coherent, with some of its more extreme elements finding their political home elsewhere. As one of the established parties under the first-past-the-post system, the Conservatives are a ‘big tent’ party, traditionally catering for those who hover in the centre of politics – attracted to its traditional one-nation principles – through to the more hardline New Right and Thatcherite wing that calls for lower taxation and a smaller state. Attempting to cater for the competing wants of the two distinct groups has always been a difficult balancing act for the party. This challenge was exacerbated by the issue of Europe, with euroscepticism on the right of the party being a key factor leading to the 2016 referendum, and subsequent divisions over what Brexit would look like. With that issue largely put to bed, immigration and culture wars appear to have replaced it as the new battlegrounds for the Conservatives, and politics more generally.
At roughly the same time that Braverman was accusing the Conservatives of betrayal on these issues (for not going far enough), others were saying that the party had gone too far. Prosper UK, which launched last week, is a conservative campaign group led by Andy Street (former
Mayor of the West Midlands) and Ruth Davidson (former leader of the Scottish Conservatives). The group is calling for for a return to a centre-right (one-nation) position for the Conservative Party, arguing that within that space there are millions of voters who they describe as ‘politically homeless’ and who feel uneasy with the party’s lurch to the right. The group is endorsed by a wide array of ‘big beasts’ from recent Conservative Party history, including Ken Clarke (former Chancellor and Home Secretary), Amber Rudd (former Home Secretary), David Gauke (former Justice Secretary and Lord Chancellor), and Malcolm Rifkind (former Foreign Secretary).
On their website, Prosper UK explains its view as follows:
We are proud to launch Prosper UK, a movement founded on a simple truth: there is a clear gap in British politics, and millions of voters feel politically homeless. We want to bring those people together, take the conversation beyond Westminster, and build a national movement rooted in listening, enterprise and serious policy.
At a time when some claim populism on the left and right is inevitable, we reject that view. We believe there is an urgent space for practical, pro-business politics that unites rather than divides, that stands up to both the left and the populist right, and that refuses easy answers and empty promises.
As moderate conservatives, we are determined to fill that space, offering stability, responsibility and optimism for the country’s future.
Their criticism is far from subtle – it is not only a rebuke of the policies of Reform, but also a warning that trying to ‘out-Farage Farage’ will end in failure and is more likely to cost the party votes from the centre ground.
Despite the gravitas that the group could claim to have given its membership, their calls were swiftly rebuffed by Kemi Badenoch. When asked about the new group on Thursday, Badenoch said, “Anybody who is trying to push an agenda that is not the platform I stood on is not being helpful”, and, “If they’ve got new ideas which are on the right, not left-wing ideas, we will welcome them. But right now we need to move away from any sort of factionalism or groupings.”
It seems unlikely, therefore, that Badenoch has any intention of softening the party’s stance anytime soon, and that she sees the party’s best chance of success coming by tackling Reform head on. This serves as an important reminder of the challenges faced by the established UK political parties (particularly the ‘big two’) in trying to balance the aims and ambitions of their competing wings, and how failing to do so can lead to accusations of betrayal and factionalism and splits. If Prosper UK continues to highlight the large political space in the centre ground of British politics that the Conservatives are leaving unattended, it is likely that the Lib Dems will try to fill it. This challenge may be helped by Labour’s need to tend to its left wing, given the surge in support for the Greens and their brand of left-wing populism.
The Conservatives, who are by far the most successful political party in British history, have not been in a position like this before, with a genuine electoral threat outflanking them on the political right. With MPs whittling the leadership contest down to Badenoch and Jenrick after the general election, a move to the right was inevitable. However, to still be losing MPs in that direction whilst being accused of neglecting the other wing of the party could be deemed careless.
The prospects of Badenoch changing direction are slim. However, failure to reverse the party’s fortunes may require a reconsideration of this in the future, leading to more existential questions about the future prospects of the party.