Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s presidential run-off on 25 October with 51.8 per cent of the vote, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro by approximately 4.4 million votes. Lula had finished behind Bolsonaro in the first round but mobilised younger, poorer and north-eastern voters more effectively in the run-off. This was an unprecedented reversal in modern Brazilian democracy.
The result strengthens Lula’s ability to pursue strategic autonomy. Brazil is likely to remain active in BRICS and preserve its important relationship with China while cooperating with the USA and Europe. This is not straightforward anti-Western alignment. Lula’s objective is to avoid dependence upon any single great power and use relationships with rival blocs to increase Brazil’s diplomatic importance. His victory also interrupts Latin America’s recent movement towards right-wing governments aligned with Donald Trump. However, Bolsonaro received 48.2 per cent of the vote, while conservative parties remain powerful in Congress and several state governments. Lula can resist the construction of a unified pro-Trump regional bloc, but he cannot easily establish Brazilian regional leadership.
Environmental governance provides Brazil with another source of influence. Lula has treated protection of the Amazon as both an environmental commitment and a bargaining resource in negotiations over climate finance. His victory reduces the likelihood of extensive deregulation. Nevertheless, agribusiness, mining interests and congressional opposition will restrict implementation, demonstrating the gap between international commitments and domestic state capacity.
The controversy surrounding Meta further qualifies the argument that Lula’s victory strengthens the Brazilian state. Internal company communications reportedly acknowledged that restrictions hindered Lula-linked Instagram accounts, while Meta systems recommended Flávio Bolsonaro’s profile and WhatsApp channel. Meta attributed these differences to technical faults and denied political favouritism. Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court ordered equal treatment and threatened daily fines.
There is no evidence that Meta determined the outcome of the election. However, privately controlled algorithms influenced political visibility within a sovereign democracy. Lula’s victory may increase pressure for platform regulation, but the episode demonstrates that Brazil’s international and domestic power depends partly upon its capacity to regulate transnational corporations.