Russia intensified attacks on Ukraine’s energy and communications infrastructure during October. In one week, Moscow launched nearly 2,300 drones, 48 missiles and 1,600 guided bombs. Ukraine continued striking Russian refineries, military suppliers and transport networks. These developments support realism’s claim that states rely upon coercion to protect their security and weaken opponents.
The Trump administration’s agreement with Russia provides further evidence. Moscow agreed to release more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately, with larger shipments expected later. The US Treasury suspended sanctions and restrictions on Russian diesel sales until April 2027, and the first tanker, carrying 40,000 tonnes, departed for New York. Trump argued that additional supply would reduce fuel prices before the midterm elections, although the initial shipment represented only around 7% cent of daily American diesel consumption. Russia gained revenue and partial relief from diplomatic isolation as a consequence of Washington prioritising domestic economic interests over sanctions solidarity with Ukraine.
Ukraine also attacked three Yandex data centres, disrupting Yandex Cloud and services involving payments, email, transport and food delivery. Russia’s requirement that domestic data remain inside the country has strengthened state control but concentrated important services in vulnerable facilities. Claims that the attacks destroyed Russian propaganda bots were not supported by sufficient evidence. Nevertheless, they demonstrated that sharp power has a material foundation. Bots, manipulated search results and organised disinformation depend upon servers, electricity and cloud storage. Ukraine was using hard power against infrastructure that sustains Russia’s digital economy and could facilitate influence operations abroad.
The Starlink dispute, however, exposes the limitations of state-centred realism. In mid-October, Ukraine’s military-grade Starshield connections were restricted on drones travelling above approximately 160 kilometres per hour. This disrupted strike missions and interceptor drones before full operating speeds were restored on 24 October. Responsibility remains contested. CBS reported that Elon Musk initiated the restriction, while Reuters traced the instruction to within the White House. Other reporting suggested that Musk and Trump discussed the issue beforehand. A SpaceX decision approved or encouraged by Trump is therefore plausible, although not proven.
The war broadly supports realism because states still determine sanctions, military assistance and the use of force. However, SpaceX, a private transnational company, controlled and manipulated infrastructure that Ukraine could not quickly replace. Contemporary conflicts are therefore shaped by relationships between governments and corporations, not states alone as in the state-centric realist model.