1.2.3 – Emerging and minor parties
1.3 – Electoral systems
2.1.3 – Devolution
On Thursday 23 October, voters in Caerphilly in Wales went to the polls to elect a new member of the Senedd, following the death of Hefin David in August. Whilst by-elections can often see unexpected results and may be regarded as a chance for voters to ‘let off steam’, the outcome of this election will be sending shockwaves through Welsh politics ahead of next year’s Senedd elections, and will cause further worry for Labour in one of their traditional heartlands.
Caerphilly has returned a Labour AM/MS since devolution began, and the corresponding Westminster constituency has elected a Labour MP at every election since the seat was created in 1918. However, in October’s by-election, Labour were pushed down to third place, finishing with just 11% of the vote. Instead, the contest became a two-horse race between Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle and Reform’s Llŷr Powell, with Plaid emerging victorious with 47.4% of the vote and Reform on 36%.
Whilst Labour remain the largest party in the Senedd, they have lost their effective majority, having previously held 30/60 seats whilst one opposition member occupied the role of Llywydd (Presiding Officer), meaning that the combined opposition totalled 29. Now, with Labour on just 29 seats and the opposition parties on 30, they could feasibly hold Labour’s plans to ransom over the next six months (although the wide range of political views amongst the opposition parties means this may prove tricky).
Looking ahead to next year’s Senedd
election – the first to be held using the closed list PR system – the highly respected psephologist, Professor John Curtice, said he believed that Plaid were in line to perform best in the election. Although defeated on the night, Reform will take heart from their showing in the election which, if repeated, would most likely make them the Official Opposition.
As the election took place under FPTP, it is likely that a certain degree of tactical voting occurred. Nonetheless, Labour and the Conservatives will be worried by their showing, with the Tories receiving just 2% of votes cast. They are currently the Official Opposition in Wales, but on their performance in the by-election this is unlikely to remain the case for long. If Reform can frame their campaign next year around being the only real prospect of a right-of-centre outcome (perhaps hinting at a deal between Plaid and Labour), it may be hard for the Conservatives to challenge this narrative. Unlike STV, the closed list system doesn’t allow voters to transfer their votes, and so voters must plump for one party.
Labour’s control of the Senedd looks increasingly likely to end in May 2026, after more than a quarter of a century in office. Whilst it is not inconceivable that could be a minor party in a left-of-centre coalition, the by-election indicates that voters in Wales are ready for a change. Such a heavy defeat in Labour’s traditional Welsh heartlands may also spell further trouble for Keir Starmer’s control over the national party, where dissatisfaction with the direction of the party and the performance of the government remain ongoing issues.