1.3 – Electoral systems
A recent MRP poll for the upcoming Scottish Parliament election suggests that the SNP could be set to win an overall majority, which would be only the second time this has occurred since devolution commenced in 1999.
The poll, commissioned by The Times and The Sunday Times, estimates that the SNP would win 67 of the 129 seats available, putting it over the 65 required for a majority. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are set to be the biggest losers, falling from 31 seats to just 7, thereby losing their status as the largest opposition party. Reform UK, who failed to win any seats in 2021, are on course to win 25 seats, all on regional lists. Labour, who had hoped to benefit from their strong performance in the Westminster election in 2024, are now set to lose seats and finish with 15 – winning just a single constituency seat.
This is significant because it indicates that the SNP are likely to gain from tactical voting, with one-in-four Labour supporters set to vote for the SNP to keep out Reform. This serves to demonstrate that the additional member system (AMS) is not immune from tactical voting, especially as over half the seats in the Scottish Parliament are elected under first-past-the-post (FPTP).
This projection also serves as a reminder that AMS is not an entirely proportional system. Whilst it helps smaller parties who would struggle to win a plurality to gain seats on regional lists (eg the Scottish Greens), a party who performs strongly at constituency level can still win a disproportionate number of seats. Recent polling puts the SNP on around 35% of the vote at constituency level, but this projection could see them win around 90% of constituency seats, and a majority of seats overall.