3.2 – Global governance: political and economic
3.4 – Power and developments
3.5 – Regionalism and the EU
Recent drone incursions into NATO territory provide a valuable test of how regional organisations respond to security crises that fall below the threshold of conventional war. Rather than confronting a large-scale military attack from Russia, NATO and the EU have increasingly faced ambiguous “grey zone” threats that challenge traditional deterrence. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, more than 70 violations of non-combatant European airspace have been recorded across Romania, Poland, the Baltic states and other neighbouring countries. These incidents have involved Russian drones, missiles and aircraft, alongside Ukrainian drones diverted by Russian electronic warfare.
Romania has become the clearest example of NATO’s Article 5 dilemma. Romanian authorities report that drone fragments have been found on Romanian territory on at least 47 occasions since 2022. The most serious incident occurred in late May 2026, when a Russian Geran-2 drone struck an apartment block in Galati, injuring two civilians and forcing the evacuation of around 70 residents. NATO aircraft were scrambled and alliance leaders condemned the incident, yet Article 5 was not invoked. Despite direct harm to civilians on NATO territory, the alliance judged the event insufficient to constitute an armed attack requiring collective military action.
The Baltic states have been similarly impacted by the war. In May 2026, a Ukrainian drone, apparently diverted by Russian jamming, entered Estonian airspace and was shot down by NATO aircraft. This marked the first wartime drone interception over Estonia, but collective defence mechanisms were not activated. The political consequences have been significant in Latvia. In 2026, Prime Minister Evika Silina’s coalition collapsed following criticism of the government’s handling of repeated drone incursions. Defence Minister Andris Spruds resigned amid accusations that anti-drone measures had been deployed too slowly. The crisis demonstrated how hybrid threats can destabilise governments even when they cause limited physical damage.
These cases suggest NATO and the EU have been effective at managing escalation, but less effective at deterring repeated grey-zone provocations. The ambiguity surrounding Article 5 allows security and political disruption to occur without triggering collective defence, exposing a significant limitation in contemporary security regionalism.