1.2.2 – Established political parties
Labour gathered in Liverpool last week for its annual conference. For a party still only 15 months into a five year mandate and after 14 years in opposition, the mood had been dampened by low poll ratings, growing division amongst some members about the direction party is going in, and the future of its leader.
In the build up to the leader’s speech, conference goers heard from all the leading figures in the government. The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, promised to keep taxes as low as possible, without ruling out some increases in the November budget. Wes Streeting, in a move that might be seen as restricting the chancellor’s room for manoeuvre, categorically ruled out the introduction of VAT on private healthcare fees, akin to those on independent school fees. In her first major outing as home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, outlined a series of new conditions migrants have to meet to qualify for indefinite leave to remain. These include learning English to a high standard, having a clean criminal record, and volunteer in the community. Her announcement was portrayed as a more compassionate and pragmatic alternative to Reform’s plan to scrap the scheme entirely.
Starmer’s speech on Tuesday was a carefully crafted rebuttal of his two biggest threats – Reform UK and Andy Burnham. In opposing Nigel Farage’s party, Starmer spoke about the country being at a ‘fork in the road’, with Labour’s approach to policy being one based on ‘decency’. This comes just two days after he branded Reform’s plans to scrap indefinite leave to remain as ‘racist’ and ‘immoral’. He also spoke about Britain being on a ‘hard path’ to renewal, an implicit retort to Andy Burnham who Starmer feels is making an alternative approach sound much easier than it is given the economic constraints the country is facing.
Starmer told conference that Britain had ‘placed too much faith in globalisation’ and that this was now an ‘age of insecurity’, requiring a more ‘muscular state’. This was a world away from the optimistic words that Tony Blair would shower Labour conferences with during his first term in office. Starmer was showing more empathy for people concerned about immigration – a far cry from 2010, when Gordon Brown was caught on microphone calling Gillian Duffy a ‘bigoted woman’ for talking about immigration during the election campaign.
Starmer’s speech shows the difficult position Labour find themselves in. They are losing support in their traditional heartlands to Reform – which may make them more inclined to move to the right to try to reclaim them – whilst facing mounting criticism on the left (where many of their active members can be found) for abandoning their promises to the electorate. This has led to a split with the emergence of Your Party, and mounting internal criticism from the likes of Andy Burnham. Their opinion has been bolstered by the number of departures from Number 10 in recent weeks, suggesting that Starmer has surrounded himself with the wrong people for the task at hand. Chief amongst those who have come in for criticism is Morgan McSweeney, the Downing Street Chief of Staff. Whilst it is widely accepted that McSweeney played a vital role in securing Starmer the party leadership and leading the party to victory in 2024, some question his suitability for helping to run the government operation.
Starmer’s challenge remains keeping Labour supporters onside, whilst being able to appeal to the very people who helped to catapult them into government last year but who are now turning to Reform UK in their droves. This is why Reform are keen to ensure immigration remains the most important topic of debate, as it is one which divides Labour so deeply. On that topic, Starmer warned his party that his government would have to take decisions ‘that will not always be comfortable’ for the party.
Perhaps the most notable thing about Starmer’s speech is the emphasis he placed on Reform UK and Nigel Farage, at the expense of the Conservatives. The Conservatives were only mentioned a handful of times, with one reference being the rather cutting line, “Now, the Tories – do you remember them?”. By talking up Farage and pitching the battlelines being between Labour and Reform, essentially portraying the Conservatives as an irrelevance, Starmer is aiming to claim the middle ground and win over moderate Conservatives – a pitch not too dissimilar to the one made by Ed Davey at the Lib Dem conference the week before.
Attention now turns to the Conservatives, whose conference began on Sunday 5 October and runs until Wednesday 8 October. It will be vital for Kemi Badenoch to reassert the importance of the Conservatives in the minds of the electorate.