1.2.2 – Established political parties
The Conservatives rounded off the conference season last week with their gathering in Manchester. Whilst it is not unusual for a party to feel deflated 15 months after a landslide defeat, the mood at conference was described as particularly ‘flat’. Journalists pointed to the number of empty seats in the main hall during speeches from shadow ministers, as well as the amount of space in the exhibition hall. Some even noted that the event seemed more pessimistic than last year, when a sense of relief from those who survived the 2024 election was evident, and the ongoing leadership contest kept intrigue and excitement alive for conference-goers.
This was Kemi Badenoch’s first conference as party leader, and her aim was to ensure the party remained relevant in the eyes of the public. To help achieve this, the party unveiled a raft of new policies – something Badenoch had said would be done gradually after becoming leader just under a year ago. These included a vow to leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), repeal the Human Rights Act, and repeal the Climate Change Act. There were also a number of pledges on tax, such as scrapping Labour’s policy of VAT on independent school fees, abolishing inheritance tax on farms, and removing stamp duty on primary residences.
In her speech, Badenoch acknowledged that there was still a great deal of public anger over the Conservatives’ performance in government, but used that to segue into an attack on Nigel Farage and Reform UK – describing them as a party that would not be seen as a serious option in normal times, and accusing them of ‘making promises they will never be able to keep’. Badenoch accused all her political opponents of proposing to spend money they do not
have, thereby seeking to portray the Conservatives as the party of fiscal responsibility – territory where they have traditionally performed well. The overarching theme of the conference – and central to Badenoch’s speech – was ‘stronger economy, stronger borders’, which ensured that immigration was once again at the forefront of people’s minds. As with Labour, this was about preventing Reform from claiming to be the only party taking immigration seriously.
In the days prior to the leader’s speech, the party’s shadow justice secretary, Robert Jenrick, made headlines at conference with his vow to give ministers greater influence over judicial appointments – something that had been restricted by the Constitutional Reform Act 2005. Jenrick accused some judges of ‘[blurring] the line between adjudication and activism’, pointing to judges with links to pro-migrant and migration charities. Jenrick was also in the news after comments he made at a local Conservative Association dinner in March were leaked to the press, in which he described an area of Birmingham as being ‘as close as [he’s] come to a slum in this country’, adding that he ‘didn’t see another white face’ while he was there. Badenoch defended her frontbencher – and the person regarded by many as her biggest threat to the leadership – by saying that he had made a factual statement. However, the shadow chancellor, Mel Stride, distanced himself from Jenrick’s remarks, saying they were not words he would have used.
During the conference, a number of journalists reported that some in the shadow cabinet were considering a mass resignation from their frontbench positions in order to precipitate a leadership contest. This, it is said, stems from fears that the party will be further decimated in May’s local elections. If Reform were to outperform the Conservatives, it is feared this would reaffirm the view held by a growing number of people that Farage is the de facto Leader of the Opposition, even if not officially.
Whilst attempts to oust a leader who has not yet faced a nationwide contest may be reminiscent of Iain Duncan Smith’s departure as leader in 2003, the main difference is that 22 years ago the Conservatives did not face the same existential threat that many believe they now do. Whilst Badenoch’s speech to conference may have reassured some that she is the right person for the job, it will not change the fact that many within the party believe something drastic needs to be done.
A growing number of Conservative members polled during the conference suggested they favoured a deal with Reform (64%), whilst 46% wanted to see a full merger of the two. Whilst this is highly unlikely to happen, it does suggest that many within the party are fearing the worst.
With MPs now set to return to Westminster, the Conservatives will be keen to use their new policy platform to hold Labour to account and present an alternative vision for the country. At the same time, they will be eager to use these proposals to keep Reform at bay and reassert themselves as the main party of opposition – something that may prove more difficult.