Security fears in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania intensified during September 2026. On 14 September, an Italian fighter operating under NATO command shot down an explosive drone which entered Lithuania from Belarus. A week later, Lithuanian Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius said his country was ready to “fight back” if attacked. He also confirmed that the government had prepared civilian evacuation plans, including arrangements to move vulnerable residents without creating gridlock.
The incident followed earlier drone alerts and airspace violations affecting all three Baltic states. Russia may not risk a full invasion. Instead, it could employ cyberattacks, sabotage or “deniable” drone incursions to test the unity of NATO’s response. An ambiguous attack might expose disagreement over whether Article 5, which treats an attack on one member as an attack on all, should be activated. Such division would itself represent a strategic victory for Putin.
Concern has also been raised by Russia’s continued military expansion and reported preparations to reserve between 16,000 and 20,000 hospital beds in north-western Russia for military casualties. This does not prove that an attack is planned, but it increases Russia’s capacity to sustain escalation. If its options in Ukraine narrow, Putin may seek to regain the initiative by increasing pressure elsewhere.
NATO is reinforcing the region through hard power. The UK leads a multinational force of roughly 1,500 personnel in Estonia. Canada commands a brigade in Latvia, while Germany is establishing a permanent heavy brigade of approximately 5,000 personnel in Lithuania by 2027. Its first major exercise involved 2,900 soldiers and 800 vehicles from eight NATO states.
These deployments act as a so-called “tripwire”. Baltic national forces could delay an invasion, but sustained defence would require allied reinforcements. NATO must therefore convince Moscow that even a limited attack would produce a rapid and united military response from European militaries, even in the absence of US support.