1.1.2 – A wider franchise and debates over suffrage
1.2.3 – Minor political parties
1.4 – Voting patterns
Recent polling data suggests that the Government’s plan to enfranchise 16- and 17-year-olds may not have the desired effect as intended, with the vote amongst teenagers likely to split significantly between Labour, Reform and Your Party.
Labour announced its intentions to extend the franchise for Westminster elections to 16- and 17-year-olds in its 2024 manifesto, although it was not included in the first King’s Speech. However, over summer the government announced the change would occur ahead of the next general election, making it the first significant change to the franchise since the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18 in 1969.
Conventional wisdom would suggest that a reduction in the voting age would mean a significant boost to Labour, based on the premise than younger people tend to be more left-wing. Whilst this may still be the case to some extent, the emergence of an alternative left-wing party led by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana may cause the left vote to split. Moreover, the Reform surge which has been prevalent over the last year has made its way through to younger voters.
Polling carried out by The Sunday Times during August suggests that, when Your Party (the temporary name for the Corby/Sultana party) are included, the share of the vote would be:
Labour 24%
Reform UK 23%
Your Party 21%
Conservatives 13%
Lib Dems 12%
Whilst this poll is merely a snapshot, it does suggest that assumptions on voting patterns may not always be accurate. All parties will be vying for the support of younger voters, particularly via social media. The Greens – whose vote appears to have been most affected by the emergence of a new left-wing party – will be hoping the election of a new leaders will help bolster their chances with the new electorate.