Recent opinion polling in the UK suggests that there could be a return to the more traditional two-party model, with Labour and the Conservatives leading the other parties.
In a poll conducted by Ipsos in mid-October, Labour polled 32% – their highest in two years – and the Conservatives leapfrogged Reform UK into second place on 24%, 4 percentage points ahead of Nigel Farage’s party. The poll will be welcome news for both of the two main parties in the House of Commons. For Labour, it will serve as vindication of ousting Keir Starmer just two years after their best election result in a quarter of a century; for the Conservatives, it will give reassurance that Kemi Badenoch is the person to help them fend off the threat posed by Reform.
Another noticeable feature of the poll is the sharp decline in support for the Greens to just 8%. Its fall comes just weeks after the party passed a motion at its conference declaring itself an “anti-Zionist party” and stating that Zionism would be treated like any other form of racism, a move which led to very public divisions within the party between its membership and its elected MPs.
Whilst opinion polls are merely a snapshot in time, and must therefore be treated with a large degree of caution, the moving averages suggest that Reform and the Greens have peaked in terms of their popularity, and are now paying the price for the scandals that have beset both parties, at a time when they are under increasing media scrutiny.
Although it remains to be seen whether the current trends will continue until the next election, the rise in support for Labour and the Conservatives has had a significant impact on seat projections, with some now indicating that Labour will hold onto their majority and that the Conservatives are likely to stay on a similar number of seats.