1.2.2 – Established parties
On Thursday 22 January, it was reported that Andrew Gwynne, the independent MP for Gorton and Denton, was to step down from Parliament, thereby triggering a by-election in the Greater Manchester constituency. Given the location of the seat, the immediate speculation was that the Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, would be the Labour candidate.
Gwynne, who previously served as a junior health minister, was dismissed from this post and had the whip removed after details emerged of offensive comments he had made in a WhatsApp group. Whilst he remained an MP following the incident, he has now said he will vacate the seat on health grounds.
On Saturday, Andy Burnham publicly announced he was seeking nomination to the candidate. However, as a directly-elected mayor, he has to overcome Labour’s ruling National Executive Council (NEC), where allies of Keir Starmer are believed to be planning to block his candidacy. The rules of the Labour Party require directly elected mayors to seek the NEC’s express permission before seeking nomination to the House of Commons. The committee could, therefore, simply refuse any such request. However, to do so could be interpreted as the prime minister ‘running scared’ from a rival, thereby undermining his authority further.
An alternative step could be for the NEC to pre-empt any such request from Burnham and declare that it is imposing an all-women or all-BAME shortlist to help improve representation in the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP). Such steps have been taken before by Labour, although to do so in this instance could be viewed quite cynically.
Even if Burnham is allowed to stand as Labour’s candidate, it is far from certain that he would win. At the 2024 General Election, Gwynne was returned with a majority of over 13,000. In normal circumstances, this would be considered a safe Labour seat. However, Labour has continued to struggle in the polls since then. Reform and the Greens, who came second and third in 2024 in the constituency, will both wish to prove that they have forward momentum and are therefore likely to mount serious campaigns. If the Greens are successful in taking votes from Labour, that could be to Reform’s advantage.
Burnham’s personal popularity in the city he has led since 2017 could be enough to get him over the line. Were he to be returned to the House of Commons, rumours of a leadership challenge would be endless. It will be for Keir Starmer to decide whether he wants that level of gossiping to distract from the work of the government. It may be the case, however, that the vacancy in itself is enough to make that inevitable.