The relatively comfortable election of Bev Craig will come as some relief for Labour, especially as they were losing one of their most successful vote getters from the ballot in Andy Burnham. When Burnham was declined permission to run in the Gorton and Denton by-election in February 2026, one of the reasons given was because the party saw losing the mayoralty of Greater Manchester as a very realistic possibility. However, his election to Parliament and then seemingly inevitable elevation to the position of party leader and Prime Minister has seen Labour’s fortunes in the polls improve significantly.
Having seen their standings in the polls continue to slide downwards throughout this Parliament, the election of Burnham has led to a sharp upwards turn in Labour’s standing with voters. Labour has had a polling lead in most national polls since he became Prime Minister, with the party rising to the high 20s.
Conversely, it has been a time of mixed fortunes for Reform UK. Having led in every major poll for over a year, the party has struggled in recent months due to a number of financial scandals, which culminated in Nigel Farage resigning his Clacton seat before winning the subsequent by-election. With the established parties choosing to boycott the election, Farage’s victory was almost guaranteed. However, now that he has returned to the House of Commons, he will face a standards investigation into the £5m gift from a Thai-based crypto billionaire, which was not declared when Farage first arrived in the Commons in 2024. More recently, a Channel 4 report showed senior Reform UK staff preparing to accept donations from someone posing as a wealthy American supporter, despite a legal ban on donations from foreign nationals.
Whilst recent MRP polls, which seek to predict the number of seats parties would win, still have Reform winning around 150 seats, this is down on some earlier projections handing the party a majority. Whilst such polls are volatile, recent trends undoubtedly represent a downward trend for the party.
Amidst the contrasting trajectories of Labour and Reform UK, the Conservatives have remained fairly consistent, polling around 20%. Kemi Badenoch’s decision to refresh her shadow cabinet ahead of the Commons returning after the summer recess may point to her realising that the party needs to take drastic steps to assert itself as the leading opposition party in the eyes of voters.