3.2 Informal Sources of Presidential Power
3.3.2 Limitations on Presidential Power
Trump goes into November’s midterms an unpopular president. Pew Research Center put his approval at 34 per cent in mid-July, against 40 per cent at the same stage of his first term, and Nate Silver’s polling average had him at minus 20.6 net on 7 August, his worst position in either term. Most of the slide has come from his own side: 69 per cent of Republicans and Republican leaners approve, down from 84 per cent in February 2025, with prices and tariffs the dominant complaint.
None of this alters his formal powers. He remains commander-in-chief, retains the veto and still appoints federal judges. What weakens is informal power, or what Neustadt called the power to persuade. Legislators in marginal seats gain reasons to break ranks, as the Republican senator Bill Cassidy did this week over vaccine policy, and presidents who cannot persuade Congress reach instead for executive orders, which federal judges can stay.
The limitation is therefore real but partial. Sixty-nine per cent inside his own party is still commanding, and Trump-endorsed candidates swept Republican nominations last week. Unpopularity restricts what a president can legislate long before it loosens his hold on his party. The genuine check would be an opposition Congress after November.