Less than a month before the midterm elections, President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a career low of 32 per cent in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, with polling averages sitting near 37 per cent. Republicans are defending a 53 to 47 Senate majority, and three contests in states Trump won comfortably in 2024 show how his unpopularity is reshaping their campaigns.
Texas
Trump’s influence within his own party was clear in May, when he endorsed Attorney General Ken Paxton days before Paxton defeated the incumbent senator, John Cornyn, in a primary runoff. The general election has proved harder. A Fox News poll puts Democrat James Talarico narrowly ahead, while a majority of voters worry that Paxton is too close to Trump. Hispanic voters, central to Trump’s 2024 gains, now heavily favour Talarico, despite record Republican advertising and three presidential visits in a month.
Alaska
Senator Dan Sullivan has taken the opposite approach, remaining a loyal ally who rarely breaks with the president. Trump has praised him publicly, promised to campaign in the state and unveiled a $54 billion investment in Alaska’s gas pipeline project. Yet Democrat Mary Peltola, who finished eight points ahead of Sullivan in August’s top-four primary, leads most polls, and a majority of Alaskans now view Trump negatively. Peltola presents herself as an independent voice willing to work with anyone.
Iowa
Iowa shows the clearest shift. Congresswoman Ashley Hinson launched her bid for the open seat promising to be Trump’s closest Senate ally, but with his approval in the state at 42 per cent, she has changed course. She has called for an immediate end to the Iran war, which has driven up fuel and fertiliser costs for farmers, and criticised his decisions on beef imports. The race is now a toss-up, with the two latest polls showing margins of one or two points in opposite directions.
What does this reveal?
These races expose both the strength and the limits of presidential power. Trump’s endorsement remains decisive in Republican primaries, where his base dominates. In general elections, however, Neustadt’s argument that presidential power is the power to persuade becomes a constraint: an unpopular president cannot win over swing voters, and candidates who depend on them must create distance. The result is an internal conflict between loyalty to Trump and electoral survival. Losing the Senate would bring divided government, curtailing his ability to confirm appointments and pass legislation.