Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022 and still occupies roughly 20% of its territory. US-mediated negotiations remain divided over territory and Ukrainian security guarantees. On 12 August 2026, Kyiv proposed a mutual halt to attacks on civilian Black Sea targets; Moscow rejected it on 14 August. Russia then struck Ukrainian ports and industrial sites on 27 August. Sanctions have raised costs for Russia, but India and China have both continued purchasing Russian energy. “Hard power” military endurance has therefore outweighed “soft power” diplomatic condemnation.
The US–Iran war began with American and Israeli strikes on 28 February 2026. Iran survived the initial attack and restricted the Strait of Hormuz, previously carrying approximately one-fifth of globally traded oil and liquefied natural gas. A 17 June memorandum established a 60-day negotiating period, but this rapidly collapsed over control of the strait. US forces struck Larak Island on 30 August; Iran retaliated against US bases in Jordan. Oil prices immediately rose again, demonstrating Iran’s continuing structural power despite American military superiority.
In Gaza, the October 2025 ceasefire reduced large-scale combat without ending coercion. By 31 August 2026, more than 1,300 Palestinians and four Israeli soldiers had reportedly died since the agreement. Hamas offered conditional disarmament, while Israel required disarmament before withdrawal.
These cases support a realist interpretation of global politics. Institutions can mediate, monitor and distribute aid, but cannot enforce settlements against determined states. Security Council vetoes protect major powers and their allies. Perceived Western inconsistency between Ukrainian sovereignty and Palestinian protection also reduces Western soft power among states in the Global South.