Republicans tried something new last week. On 9 and 10 September, in Dallas, the party staged the first midterm convention in its history. Conventions normally come round every four years and exist to crown a presidential nominee. Only the Democrats have tried anything like this outside a presidential year, in 1974, 1978 and 1982, and none of the three went well. The Republican National Committee had to change its own rules in January to make Dallas possible. Its chairman, Joe Gruters, happily called it “Trumpapalooza”.
Each night ran for about six hours with more than fifty speakers: cabinet secretaries, candidates in tight races, and the Texas attorney general Ken Paxton. Trump took the keynote slot on night one, bumping JD Vance to night two. He spoke for nearly two hours on the border, tax cuts, energy and prices, and made two big promises. If Republicans hold both chambers, every adult citizen gets a $5,000 dividend. And a new healthcare plan would stop federal money going to insurance companies and hand it to people directly. He defended the war with Iran, which he started with Israel in February and which has pushed oil above $100 a barrel, and hinted at another strike. Then came the line the whole event was built around. Voters should “pretend that I’m on the ballot”.
3.5.2.2 – Internal conflicts and tendencies
The coalition that won in 2024 was never one thing, and Dallas showed which bits of it Trump needs most. Fiscal conservatives got almost nothing. Nobody mentioned the deficit, even though the dividend would cost well over a trillion dollars and the national debt is already past $40 trillion. The non-interventionist wing got less still. These are the voters who backed Trump in 2016 because he attacked foreign wars, and Iran has rattled them. No speaker mentioned the war at all until Trump raised it himself.
So who was the programme for? Two groups. First, the social and religious conservative base, fed on immigration, transgender athletes, voter ID and warm words about Paxton. Second, the voter who backed Trump for cheaper fuel and food rather than for any ideology, and who has watched prices go the wrong way. The dividend, the healthcare pledge and night two’s focus on tips, overtime and Social Security were all aimed at them. Congressman Brandon Gill gave the party its frame: “mainstream versus the extreme”, with the socialist Democrats who won primaries this summer as the target.
3.3.2 Limitations on presidential power
The maths is tight. Republicans hold the House 218 to 213 and the Senate 53 to 47, so Democrats need a net gain of about three districts to win the lower chamber. Forecasters have them well ahead there, with the Senate looking like a genuine toss-up this week too.
That explains why Trump is doing this at all. Lose either chamber and unified government ends. Democrats get the subpoena power that makes oversight bite, they can block legislation, and in the Senate they control confirmations of judges and appointees. Trump has governed largely by executive action, but money, investigations and impeachment still sit with Congress. His approval is about 39 per cent, against disapproval of 57. A president in that spot wants the election to be a choice between two parties, not a verdict on him. Hence the convention, and his promise to campaign in about thirty-five competitive races. The GOP candidates in these races might prefer it if President Trump stayed away.
3.2 Informal sources of presidential power
Presidents don’t usually drag their party over the line at a midterm. Coattails work when a popular name at the top of the ticket pulls the candidates below it. At a midterm that name isn’t there, turnout drops, and the surge that won the presidency fades. In 2018 Republicans lost forty House seats net, and Trump was more popular then than he is now. He knows it. After Republicans lost a Texas state senate special election in January, he pointed out that he wasn’t on the ballot and said his support might not be transferable.
Dallas was an attempt to fix that by force of personality. The danger is that it works in reverse. An unpopular president can push his opponents to the polls and drag his own candidates down in seats he lost. Several vulnerable Republicans stayed away from Dallas, and most Republican adverts talk about affordability rather than about him. Whether persuasion and personality can stand in for a name on the ballot is what November will decide.