1.2.2 – Established parties
2.2.1 – Parliament
Last week Andy Burnham won what many are calling the most consequential by-election in British history. Not only did he win it, but he won it convincingly, securing 53.8% of the vote and a majority of 9,231. He is now a Member of Parliament and, crucially, eligible to challenge Keir Starmer for the leadership of the Labour Party. The next stage in this long-running political soap opera is upon us. It feels increasingly clear that Burnham will, at some point, mount that challenge – and that he is likely to succeed. But how will it happen?
There are potentially two routes.
The first is a formal challenge under Labour Party rules. A leadership challenge against a sitting leader requires 20% of Labour MPs – currently 81 out of 403 – to back a challenger. This can only happen once every 12 months, with the reset point being the annual party conference. If a challenger secures the requisite backing, other candidates may also enter the race. The sitting leader does not need to gather nominations and is automatically on the ballot.
Once a contest is launched, candidates must clear a second hurdle: securing support from at least 5% of constituency Labour parties, or the backing of at least three Labour affiliates comprising 5% of affiliated party membership, at least two of which must be trade unions. This stage matters because it tests whether a candidate commands genuine support beyond the parliamentary party – which tends to sit to the right of the broader membership.
If those thresholds are cleared, the contest proceeds to a full membership ballot. Since 2021, only party members and affiliates are eligible to vote. If one candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, they are elected. If no candidate reaches that threshold, the candidate in last place is eliminated and their votes redistributed according to second preferences. The process repeats until someone crosses the line.
The second route is informal: a private reckoning inside the Cabinet. Senior ministers may conclude that Starmer’s time is running out and that they have a duty to act. They may tell him, quietly but unmistakably, that if he chooses to stand in a contest, they cannot support him. By the evening of Friday 19th June, this was already reported to be happening. Heidi Alexander, the Transport Secretary and a known Burnham ally, was said to have told Starmer he should set out a timeline for his departure.
Labour MPs will be acutely conscious of their own recent history. For years they criticised the psychodrama that periodically engulfed the Conservative Party under May, Johnson and Truss. A divisive contest – one in which Starmer himself stands and fights – risks inflicting precisely that kind of damage on Labour ahead of a future general election. The parallel with Margaret Thatcher in November 1990 is hard to ignore. Challenged for the leadership and having narrowly cleared the first ballot, she declared her intention to stand in the second round – only for Cabinet ministers to visit her one by one at Downing Street and withdraw their support. She resigned the following morning.
The potential disrupter in all of this is Wes Streeting. The former Health Secretary has made clear he believes a leadership contest should happen, and has called for a contest of ideas rather than simply personalities. If Streeting concludes that a choreographed handover to Burnham is being arranged behind closed doors, he may choose to force the issue – provided he can secure the 81 nominations required. That would trigger a formal contest whether Burnham wants one or not, and would ensure that the succession is contested rather than settled in the corridors of power.