1.2 – Political parties
1.3 – Electoral systems
Three by-elections to the House of Commons were held last Thursday. However, it was the result of the one in Makerfield that may well prove to be the point at which Keir Starmer’s premiership was dealt its fatal blow, with Andy Burnham returned to the House of Commons on 54.8% of the vote.
It is often difficult to read too much into individual by-election results, as voters often use them to vent their frustration with the government or lend support to a candidate championing a particular local issue that doesn’t translate to the national stage. This by-election, however, was different. It was triggered by the resignation of Josh Simons and widely seen as deliberately set up to aid Burnham’s election to the House of Commons, where he would be in a position to challenge Keir Starmer.
Burnham’s participation in the election was far from certain, however. He had previously been barred from standing in the Gorton and Denton by-election, on the grounds that a victory there would have risked Labour’s hold on the mayoralty of Greater Manchester. However, with Starmer’s authority greatly diminished, it was difficult to envisage the NEC blocking Burnham for a second time. Labour’s hold over the mayoralty of Manchester is certainly at risk now the so-called ‘King of the North’ won’t be on the ballot.
Having secured the nomination, the result in Makerfield was far from a foregone conclusion. Reform UK were standing Robert Kenyon, a local plumber who had also contested the seat in 2024, securing 31.8% of the vote. This time round, he polled 34.5%. The strong showing will continue to worry Labour in one of their traditional electoral strongholds, especially as they won’t always have such a ‘big beast’ on the ballot to help pull in the extra votes these types of contests require.
Polling for the seat had consistently put Labour ahead of Reform, although it was the strong showing of Restore Britain that was the most noteworthy feature of the polls. Rupert Lowe’s party had benefited significantly from being amplified by Elon Musk and his platform, X, and it looked at one point as if they were going to split the right-vote and allow Burnham to squeeze through. On the day, Restore Britain won 6.8%, which in another contest might be enough to affect the outcome.
Another noticeable feature of the election was the poor showing by the other established parties – the Conservatives and Lib Dems, as well as by the Greens, who had done so well in the last by-election in the North-West. Their combined vote share fell by 18.9% compared to the 2024 General Election. With 89.3% of votes going to Labour and Reform, this could be said to demonstrate one of the key weaknesses of FPTP, as it forces electors to vote tactically, often eschewing their preferred candidate or party, in favour of someone who can beat their least preferred option and thus creating a negative approach towards voting and elections.
The emphatic nature of Burnham’s victory, which saw Labour’s share of the vote go up by 9.6%, will give further credence to those backing him that he is the man to help Labour out of their decline, which has seen them hovering below 20% in recent opinion polls.
With Andy Burnham due to be sworn in to Parliament early this week, it is surely only a matter of days or weeks before a Labour leadership contest is initiated. Despite having led Labour to one of its greatest landslide victories just two years ago, Keir Starmer’s position as party leader and Prime Minister suddenly looks extremely precarious.