1.3 – Electoral systems
Three by-elections for the House of Commons will take place on Thursday 18 June. Two of these will be in Scotland, triggered by the election of two SNP MPs to the Scottish Parliament. However, nearly all eyes will be on Makerfield, where Andy Burnham will seek to return to the House of Commons, and whose return to Westminster could have significant consequences for Sir Keir Starmer and the Labour Party.
Whilst the Aberdeen South by-election will be contested by seven candidates and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by just five, the Makerfield by-election will see 14 candidates on the ballot paper, which speaks volumes about the amount of attention the by-election is attracting.
However, despite the wide field of candidates, a poll by Survation (carried out between 18-22 May) indicates that the contest is likely to be a two-horse race, with only Labour (43%) and Reform UK (40%) in double digits.
This may be driven by in part by the winner-take-all aspect of first-past-the-post (FPTP), whereby voters perceive there are only two candidates with a realistic chance of winning and therefore vote tactically to affect the outcome. This can be seen in the fall in support for the Conservatives in the recent poll (2%) compared to their performance in the constituency in the 2024 General Election (10.9%). Similar patterns could also be spotted in the Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year.
The sense that Makerfield is a straight fight between Labour and Reform will be encouraged further by the limited campaigns run by the other main parties, whose candidates are likely to receive very limited financial resources, with parties preferring to spend their resources on seats they regard as more winnable.