2.3.3 – The Prime Minister
The turmoil over the past week has seen Keir Starmer’s authority dwindle, as Labour MPs openly talk about who the next leader should be, despite no leadership contest having been announced.
While Keir Starmer’s legal powers as Prime Minister – known as prerogative powers – remain undiminished, his authority over his party and the Government has been severely damaged. This is known as the ‘elastic band theory’, referring to the variables that often determine the power that a Prime Minister is able to wield. Key variables often include the size of the government’s majority, Cabinet and party unity, the Prime Minister’s personality and leadership style, and the government’s popularity with the public and the media.
A majority the size of Labour’s should make a Prime Minister largely untouchable, and would actually enhance their power and authority. This is in contrast to Theresa May’s government following the 2017 General Election, which lost a record 33 divisions in the Commons, thereby damaging her credibility as an effective leader.
However, it is Starmer’s leadership style that has come under scrutiny, with Streeting criticising his lack of direction (code, perhaps, for ideological grounding) in his resignation letter. Starmer’s lack of close allies in politics has meant he has quickly become isolated in office, with very few, if any, MPs being described as ‘Starmerites’ in the way that ‘Blairite’ and ‘Brownite’ were common parlance in the New Labour years.
The divisions within the party over what happens next is further testament to Starmer’s weakness as party leader, with a significant proportion of his MPs prepared to write his political obituary already. The lukewarm words of support from some Cabinet colleagues are a further indication of a lack of support from those obliged to back the government and Prime Minister publicly.
Labour’s unpopularity in the polls must also sit with Starmer, and his speech last Monday promising a reset appears to have come too late to convince anyone that change is likely. Labour’s electoral victory in 2024 came with just 33.7% of the vote, meaning that any fall in that vote could have disastrous consequences next time around.
While Starmer has received some praise for his handling of international events, this has been offset by disillusionment among voters that Labour has been no better than their predecessors, despite their promise of ‘change’ in 2024. This view has been exacerbated by the Mandelson scandal and events such as ‘freebiegate’, which hit Labour shortly after coming to office.
It remains to be seen if, or when, a leadership contest will occur within the Labour Party. Even if Starmer’s rivals hold fire for now, it would appear that his authority as Prime Minister has been severely damaged by events over the last fortnight. Even though his legal powers remain unchanged, his credibility and influence over the Government and the Labour Party have been severely affected, perhaps irrevocably.