What happened in the Senedd and what next?
Last week was a historic week in Welsh politics. After 124 years of political dominance in Wales, Welsh Labour was comprehensively toppled by Plaid Cymru and Reform UK. This raises several questions over why Labour performed so poorly, what impact the new electoral system had, and what this means for Wales going forward.
Context
It is important first to understand the scale of defeat Labour experienced, and why it is so significant in the context of the Labour Party and Welsh politics as a whole. The Labour Party has its origins in Wales. It was formed in 1900 out of the actions of Welsh railway workers in the Valleys – an area just north of its capital city, Cardiff. Many of the key heroes of the Labour Party over the twentieth century have been Welsh – Aneurin Bevin, founder of the NHS, was Welsh. Keir Hardie, founder of the Labour Party, was an MP for Merthyr Tydfil in South Wales. Wales has also seemed to represent the ‘traditional’ demographic of Labour voters: it is a traditionally industrial country with mines, steel works and ports providing employment for its population until deindustrialisation in the late twentieth and early twenty first century. It is currently one of the most socio-economically deprived areas of the UK as a whole. Therefore, Labour policies should be winners amongst voters. And indeed, they were. For 124 years.
Why did Labour perform so badly?
However, although Labour losing in May 2026 is being reported as a shock, it shouldn’t be. Partisan dealignment has been a political story in Wales for at least two decades, if not longer. This trend helps us to explain why did Labour fare so badly. Labour have been facing a growing strength of opposition from Plaid Cymru who share many of the same policies when it comes to social welfare, housing, the economy and education: the core tenets of Labour policy. However, Plaid Cymru, being a Welsh nationalist party, also have the advantage that they can argue that they truly understand the issues facing Welsh voters. Issues that Welsh Labour politicians cannot do, beholden as they are to Westminster and the central Labour Party. This has proved extremely attractive and feeds into the ever-present narrative that Westminster politics is dominated by an out of touch elite, that do not understand the problems of the working voter.
This message, too, has been seized by Reform UK who have used culture wars over issues such as gender, immigration and mundanities such as the incredibly unpopular 20mph blanket residential speed limit in Wales to argue that money that could be used on improving Welsh lives is being wasted on ‘woke’ policies. In a time of increasing cost-of-living in areas that have faced decades of declining opportunities, this is a seductive message and could account for the massive support for Reform UK.
There is also the problem of incumbency. Welsh Labour have been in power in the Senedd for 27 years, since its initial inception as the National Assembly for Wales but the issues that voters care deeply about in Wales (the NHS, education, housing) have not improved and under some metrics have declined. It is hard for Welsh Labour to promise change and improvement when the evidence seems to suggest that they have not been able to deliver.
What impact did proportional representation have?
Well, firstly, it has not delivered a majority. This is often a criticism of a proportional system with proponents of FPTP arguing that not having a majority party in power will lead to an inherently weak system. This is not necessarily true, as demonstrated by decades of stable, secure government in countries such as Germany. Secondly, it means that parties that have broad but shallow support have gained seats when, historically, in FPTP systems they have not. Reform UK offer a salient example here. In the General Election of 2024, they received 14.3% of the vote and 5 seats whereas the Liberal Democrats in the same year received 12.2% of the vote but won 72 seats. Under the proportional system, Reform UK they received 29.3% of the vote and received 34 seats. Thirdly, the era of a two-party system is truly over in Wales: within the Senedd there are now 6 parties represented, which could be argued to be more representative than previous iterations. However, it will mean compromise as Plaid, the party with the most seats, will have to find partners within the Senedd to help them pass their core manifesto legislation. This support will likely come from the Greens and Labour, who have 2 and 9 seats respectively and sit on the political left with Plaid. But at what cost?
What next for Wales?
This brings us onto the third question: what will the future look like for Wales? Plaid will likely have to tone down any policy regarding Welsh independence (they have always stated that they wouldn’t push for it in any initial position of power anyway) as neither the Greens nor Labour are in favour of Welsh independence. Additionally, they will face robust opposition from the next biggest party in the Senedd, Reform UK. Not only are they relatively close in number of seats and therefore voting power, Reform UK sit on the political right and many of their policies are in direct opposition to those of Plaid. This means that getting contentious legislation passed will require concessions to the right, which could alienate a lot of Plaid’s voting base.
Ultimately, regardless of your political leanings and feelings about the outcome of the election, this is an exciting time to be living in Wales. We have a new government which is far more representative than it has been in the past. Newer, smaller, parties will have more of a say politically. What this means for people living in Wales, only time will tell.
Politics Online’s Senedd Election Special is written by Anne John. Anne is Politics teacher from Cardiff.