How are the different parties campaigning in South Wales?
Being a proud resident of Cardiff, I will be able to vote in the upcoming Senedd Cymru election, as will anyone who is resident in Wales (as opposed to the citizenship requirements for a General Election) and anyone who is over the age of 16. Duly, I exercised my democratic right as a Welsh resident, registered to vote and chose to be on the open register which means that my address is visible to political campaigners. As a result, my letterbox has been filled daily with a variety of campaigning materials allowing me the luxury of conducting an analysis of the campaign tactics in my constituency from my own home. So, what do the prospective candidates in my suburban area of Cardiff think will entice me to vote for them?
As mentioned in previous newsletters, the votes being cast will have perhaps more of an impact due to the Welsh election switching to a Closed List system for this and future Senedd Cymru elections. Plaid Cymru, Wales Green Party and Reform UK are focusing heavily on the message that this is a new form of election, and that proportional voting will allow for smaller parties to potentially have a greater share of power within the Senedd. Plaid Cymru and the Wales Green Party are messaging that there is a race to keep Reform UK out, with a leaflet from Plaid Cymru this morning saying ‘In Caerdydd Penarth and across Wales, it’s a two horse race between Plaid and Reform UK,’ next to poll data from a poll commissioned by YouGov, Cardiff University and ITV 9-18th March 2026, predicting Plaid Cymru having a 33% share of the vote and Reform UK 27%. This has been reflected on a variety of leaflets that I have collected over the past few weeks, with Reform UK and the Wales Green party saying various versions of the same message: Welsh Labour is dead, who will be in charge next?
Interestingly, my colleague who has two Sixth-Form age children at home reported to me that the teenagers had received materials directly addressed to them from Reform UK but the older adults in the home had not, suggesting that Reform UK have decided to direct their campaigning funds towards targeting the youth vote in that area of Cardiff.
But what about the current behemoth that is Welsh Labour? They are clearly not going anywhere without a fight, with a variety of different materials from pamphlets to personalised letters appearing at my door for the past few weeks. The party is focusing on the experience it has in power, implying that smaller parties do not have the necessary skills or abilities to effect the changes that they promise in their manifesto. Additionally, some of the material has not come from candidates, but from notable local figures, such as the head of a local hospice charity. Again, they are messaging that Welsh Labour are the only party that is embedded within the community and within Wales with the experience to lead well.
Welsh Conservatives, although also focusing on the opportunities provided by the new electoral system, are taking a very different line from Welsh Labour, Wales Green Party, Reform UK and Plaid Cymru. They focus on reducing the power of the Senedd, which they say is in direct opposition to policies from Plaid, Reform UK, the Greens and Labour. They are also openly critical of other parties making various negative claims about Plaid, Reform UK, the Greens and Labour, whereas materials from other parties are more obliquely negative in their messaging about different parties. This is interesting for two reasons. Firstly, this shows us that the Welsh Conservatives clearly think that Plaid, Labour, Reform UK, and the Greens are the ‘parties to watch’ (and polling data currently supports this). Secondly, focusing on the ‘negative’ aspects of these other parties also shows us what the Welsh Conservative representative for my constituency thinks will appeal to the people living in my area. They focus heavily on the rule of law, claiming that the Greens want to ‘legalise hard drugs,’ and that Plaid Cymru ‘Backed [a] terrorist group,’. They suggest that they are stronger than Reform UK on immigration control stating that Reform UK ‘Failed to support Conservative efforts,’ and are clearly socially conservative in areas such as the gender debate.
Under the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000, parties in Wales have a strict spending limit on their election campaigns which is based on both the number of candidates and the number of constituencies in which they are standing candidates. Postal campaign materials are not cheap. Whether the chunk of the campaigning budget that the parties have allocated to postal campaign materials will pay off will be revealed on 7th May when the voters turn out. Let’s hope for all parties that it is clement weather as this will drive people to the polls.