In the early hours of Friday 27 February, the news broke that the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer had secured her party their first ever by-election victory for the House of Commons, and increased their standing to five MPs.
Whilst it is possible to read too much into individual by-election results, this one has the potential to be particularly significant for the future of Keir Starmer. In addition, it will give a lot of encouragement to the Greens and Reform given their previous performance in the constituency.
The results
Despite winning an overall majority of the vote in 2024, Labour dropped over 25pp to fall into third place behind the Greens and Reform.
The Greens, who came a distant third in 2024 with just 13.2% of the vote finished this time with over 40%, whilst Reform UK finished runners up again. However, this time they doubled their overall vote share. The Conservatives and Lib Dems, clearly feeling they were not in contention, put up paper candidates (in the 2024 General Election, both parties finished behind the Workers Party).
1.2 – Political parties
Labour
Whilst the focus should be on the Greens for their performance in the by-election, all eyes are likely to be on Labour.
The decision taken by Labour’s NEC to bar Andy Burnham from standing for election will now come under further scrutiny. Hypothetical polling in the constituency indicates that the Mayor of Manchester would have held onto the seat for Labour. Instead, the party has lost a seat that it is held since its existence (its previous incarnation was created in 1983), in an area of the country that would typically be described as Labour’s heartland.
The loss of a traditionally Labour-leaning seat just months ahead of local and devolved elections (all of which look set to be difficult for the party) has the potential to increase speculation amongst Labour MPs that Keir Starmer is not the man to lead the party into the next general election. Whilst Labour have traditionally been far more loyal to their leader than the Conservatives have, the prospect of hundreds of MPs losing their seats may well just lead to more food for thought, especially when many MPs feel they have ready made successors in either Wes Streeting or Andy Burnham (aside from the fact he’s not an MP).
The Greens
This result will be seen as an endorsement of the work Zack Polanski has done to make the party more populist and generate more publicity amidst the media’s focus on Reform’s surge and Labour’s woes.
The party may have feared being squeezed out due to FPTP’s propensity to encourage tactical voting, which could potentially have seen would-be Green voters plump for Labour to keep Reform out. In the end, it may well be that the opposite occurred. The Greens will now be keen to keep up the message that they are a viable force, capable of winning anywhere.
By-elections can be more favourable to smaller parties as it allows them to concentrate their resources in one place, whereas general elections can feel like too much of a stretch – an issue even the Lib Dems have encountered in the past.
It will be incumbent on Hannah Spencer to solidify her seat, in order to avoid simply being a placeholder until the next general election. This was an issue for perennial by-election candidate George Galloway, who won the Rochdale by-election in February 2024, only to lose the seat a couple of months later in the general election.
Reform UK
Despite coming second, the party are likely to be very pleased with the inroads they have made in a traditional Labour seat. If the party can build on their 28.7% of the vote, and the left-of-centre vote continues to be split between Labour and the Greens, the party has the potential to benefit from the vagaries of the FPTP, where only a plurality of the vote is needed to win. Whilst the Conservatives put up little fight, Reform will be keen to ensure their would-be voters continue to switch over to them.